Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
